The IDF struck Iranian air defenses and missile production facilities early Saturday morning in response to the missile attack carried out against Israel at the beginning of October.
The operation, named “Days of Repentance,” was the first strike ever in Iran that Israel publicly took responsibility for.
How did we get here?
On Oct. 1, Iran launched about 180 ballistic missiles toward Israel, wounding two Israelis and killing a Palestinian man near Jericho in the West Bank. Damage was caused to several locations across Israel as well, although a large number of the missiles were intercepted.
Iran said it launched the barrage in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in July, and the assassinations of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC officer Abbas Nilforoushan in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut in September.
This was the second missile attack that Iran launched against Israel since the beginning of the war between Israel and Hamas. In April, Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles toward Israel after Nilforoushan’s predecessor, Mohammed Reza Zahedi, was killed in an airstrike in Damascus attributed to Israel.
What did the strikes target in Iran?
The strikes began at around 2 a.m. Israel time on Saturday and continued in waves for about three hours.
The IDF stated that the operation, which involved over 100 military aircraft, targeted missile production facilities and air defense systems in Iran without providing specific details.
As part of the operation, air defense batteries in Iraq and Syria were also targeted to clear the path to Iran.
Significant damage was caused to S-300 air defense batteries in the strikes, an Israeli source told KAN News. The damage to other sites in Iran was still being examined as of Saturday evening.
The Parchin military base was hit by Israeli drones during the strikes as well, according to The New York Times and Reuters. The base is believed to have been involved in testing explosives that could be used in a nuclear weapon.
Israeli sources told Sky News Arabia that the IDF estimates that Iran will need at least a year to restore its missile capabilities after the strikes.
At least four Iranian soldiers were killed in the strikes, according to Iranian state media.
Are Israel and Iran headed to war?
While the strikes were significant, it remains unclear if Iran will respond to them.
Israel avoided targeting nuclear or oil facilities in Iran, two types of sites that the Islamic Republic marked as red lines that would demand a significant response.
Iranian state media largely downplayed the impact of the strikes on Saturday, insisting that not much damage was done and that Israeli aircrafts had not entered Iranian airspace.
On Saturday evening, the IDF actually relaxed Home Front Command restrictions in the Golan Heights, the Haifa area, and other parts of northern Israel, allowing larger gatherings and for classes to resume at schools that were closed.
On the other hand, the IDF also canceled the drafting of soldiers, which was scheduled for Sunday, due to concerns that Iran could launch a retaliation.
Iran is balancing a few different factors that could affect whether or not it responds or lets this pass.
For one, Iran’s deterrence in the region has been greatly harmed. Proxy groups funded, trained, and equipped by Iran — like Hezbollah and Hamas — have been severely damaged, losing most of their senior commanders and significant portions of their military capabilities.
Now, Iran itself has suffered strikes publicly claimed by Israel for the first time. With all this in mind, the Ayatollah’s regime may feel pressure to restore deterrence through force.
However, that damage may be precisely what will keep Iran from responding.
Iran’s strategy in attacking Israel and the West has been through asymmetric warfare. Its military capabilities are limited, especially compared to Israel and the United States, so instead of confronting these countries head-on, Iran realized it needed other measures to wage an effective war without paying a heavy price.
It accomplished this through primarily by establishing or supporting terrorist groups across the Middle East who would listen to its commands and serve as a front line to keep the conflict far away from Iranian territory. These groups also provided Iran with plausible deniability since it could always say Hezbollah or Hamas were to blame.
Iran trained these proxy groups to weaponize international law against Israel and the West. Realizing that the U.S., Israel, and other countries would be held to the standards of international law while Iran and its proxies would not, Iran encouraged its proxies to hide among civilian populations, use suicide bombings targeting both civilians and military targets, and use other measures that would make it difficult if not impossible for countries to retaliate without violating the rules of war they’re held to by international law.
The current war has thrown that strategy out of balance. The main reason Iran funded groups like Hezbollah and Hamas was to keep the conflict far away from Tehran, but with these groups largely decimated, that strategy isn’t working anymore.
Now, Iran can either pull back and possibly even pressure Hezbollah and Hamas into accepting a ceasefire to gain time to rebuild everything it lost, or it could lash out in an attempt to force Israel to pull back and reestablish the balance of deterrence that existed up until now between the two countries.
Iran may also hope that a larger conflict will turn more of the international community against Israel. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have made it clear that they want to avoid such a war at all costs, especially as they would almost definitely get dragged into the conflict.
World leaders warn against further escalation between Israel and Iran
Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. issued condemnations of the Israeli strikes in Iran on Saturday.
The Emirati Foreign Ministry expressed its “deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region.” The Ministry called for countries in the region to exercise “maximum restraint” to avoid an expansion of the conflict.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry called the strikes a “violation of [Iran’s] sovereignty and a violation of international laws and norms.”
“The Kingdom affirms its unwavering position in its rejection of the continued escalation in the region and the expansion of the conflict that threatens the security and stability of the countries and people of the region,” added the Foreign Ministry.
“The Kingdom urges all parties to exercise the utmost restraint and reduce escalation, and warns of the consequences of continuing military conflicts in the region. The Kingdom calls on the international community and influential and active parties to carry out their roles and responsibilities towards reducing escalation and ending the conflicts in the region.”
Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris stressed that the U.S. maintains the importance of Israel’s right to defend itself but stressed that the Biden administration was “very adamant that we must see de-escalation in the region going forward.”
A senior official in the Biden administration told the press on Saturday that the U.S. would help defend Israel if Iran launches another attack, warning that “there will be consequences for Iran” in such a scenario.
“This should be the end of this direct exchange of fire between Israel and Iran. Israel has made clear to the world that its response is now complete,” said the official. “Accordingly, we would call on all countries of influence to press Iran to stop these attacks against Israel so that we can move beyond this direct cycle of attacks.”
The secretary-general of the United Nations, António Guterres, said he was “deeply alarmed” by the “continued escalation in the Middle East.” Guterres urged all parties to “cease all military actions, including in Gaza and Lebanon, exert maximum efforts to prevent an all-out regional war and return to the path of diplomacy.”
Strikes come as ceasefire talks set to resume between Israel and Hamas
The strikes in Iran came as Israel and Hamas were set to resume negotiations aimed at reaching a ceasefire and hostage release in Doha this week.
The talks had been stalled for months after six hostages were murdered by their Hamas captors in a tunnel in southern Gaza in August.
Shortly after Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was eliminated by IDF soldiers earlier this month, mediators announced that the talks would resume, even though Hamas has insisted that its demands remain unchanged.
The U.S. and mediators in the region have increased pressure on Hamas and Israel to reach a deal since Sinwar’s elimination, as Sinwar was seen as one of the main obstacles to an agreement.