Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on Tuesday evening after over 400 days of fighting, according to announcements by the United States, France, Lebanon, and Israel.
The ceasefire is set to take effect at 4 a.m. Israel time (9 p.m. EST) Wednesday morning.
What does the ceasefire entail, and how do Israelis feel about the deal? Let’s Unpack it.
How we got here
On Oct. 8, one day after Hamas launched its assault on southern Israel, Hezbollah began lobbing rockets, missiles, and drones toward northern Israel, forcing about 68,000 people to evacuate from their homes.
Over the past year, tensions steadily intensified between Israel and Hezbollah. Hezbollah continued to launch rockets and drones toward northern and central Israel, while the IDF struck Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon.
Hezbollah, which is allied with Hamas through the Iran-run “Axis of Resistance,” insisted that it would not stop attacking Israel until a ceasefire was reached in Gaza.
After nearly a year of war, tensions reached a peak after Israel eliminated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an airstrike on Beirut on Sept. 27. Just a few days later, the IDF launched an invasion of southern Lebanon, dismantling Hezbollah’s infrastructure throughout the region near the Israeli-Lebanese border.
The ground operation has advanced steadily through southern Lebanon, while the Israeli Air Force has continued to strike Hezbollah targets from the air.
While the IDF has said it’s destroyed the majority of Hezbollah’s advanced missiles, Hezbollah has continued to fire barrages of rockets and drones consistently into northern and central Israel over the past month.
How will the ceasefire work?
The ceasefire, which covers the next 60 days, consists of a main agreement between Israel and Lebanon and a side agreement between the U.S. and Israel.
According to Israeli media, the clauses of the main deal are as follows:
- Hezbollah and all other armed groups in Lebanon will be obligated not to take any offensive action against Israel.
- Israel will be obligated not to carry out any military attacks against targets in Lebanon from the ground, air, or sea.
- Israel and Lebanon will both recognize the importance of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, the resolution that set the terms of the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
- No part of the ceasefire will inhibit the rights of Israel or Lebanon to self-defense.
- The Lebanese military and government security forces will be the only armed forces allowed in southern Lebanon. Any sale, provision, or production of weapons or materials related to weapons in Lebanon will have to be under the supervision and control of the Lebanese government.
- All weapon production facilities without permits will be dismantled. All bases and military infrastructure not belonging to the Lebanese government will be dismantled as well.
- Israel and Lebanon will need to file reports about any violations to the monitoring committee and UNIFIL.
- The official Lebanese Army will be deployed along all of Lebanon’s borders and checkpoints.
- Israel will gradually withdraw from Lebanon over a 60-day period. As Israel withdraws, Lebanese civilians will be permitted to return to their homes in the area.
- The U.S. will advance negotiations between Israel and Lebanon concerning demarcating disputed points along the Israeli-Lebanese border.
The clauses of the side agreement between the U.S. and Israel are as follows:
- Israel and the U.S. will share sensitive intelligence about any violations of the ceasefire, including any infiltration by Hezbollah into the Lebanese Army.
- The U.S. will be permitted to share intelligence provided by Israel with the Lebanese government or the monitoring committee in order to handle the violation.
- The U.S. commits to work with Israel to curb Iran’s destabilizing activities in Lebanon, including preventing the transfer of weapons or other resources from Iranian territory.
- The U.S. recognizes Israel’s right to respond to any threats from Lebanese territory, following international law.
- In southern Lebanon, Israel reserves the right to act at any moment against any violation of the commitments reached in the deal. Outside of southern Lebanon, Israel reserves the right to act against the development of threats against it, if Lebanon cannot or will not address the threat. If Israel decides to take steps along these lines, it will inform the U.S. whenever possible.
- Israel will only be able to conduct monitoring and intelligence collection flights over Lebanon and will not be allowed to break the sound barrier.
The committee that will monitor the ceasefire is set to include the U.S., Israel, Lebanon, France, and UNIFIL, although other countries may be added later.
The requirement to disarm any armed group outside of the Lebanese Army in the area south of the Litani River was already instituted in U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006 to end the Second Lebanon War. However, Lebanon never took any steps to comply with that requirement.
The new ceasefire mostly lines up with Resolution 1701. The two most significant differences are the addition of the U.S. and France as official monitors of the ceasefire and the reported side agreement between Israel and the U.S.
What happens after 60 days?
It’s not clear as of yet what’s supposed to happen after the initial 60-day ceasefire.
Israel and Lebanon have had a dispute concerning several locations along their shared border for years, and world leaders have repeatedly tried to jumpstart negotiations to finalize the demarcation of the border over the past few years.
If the ceasefire is followed for an extended period, the 60-day period will likely be followed by negotiations concerning the Israeli-Lebanese border.
Israel is also still fighting on other fronts, foremost of which is Gaza. Hamas is still holding 101 Israelis hostage and intensive fighting is still taking place across the Strip.
Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen are also still firing drones and missiles at Israel periodically. The ceasefire does not address these threats.
Iran has also repeatedly threatened to respond to strikes conducted by Israel on Iranian military sites in October. The strikes came in response to an extensive ballistic missile barrage that Iran launched in response to Israel’s assassination of Nasrallah and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
If Iran responds, Israel will likely retaliate in kind again. This could lead to a more significant conflict between Israel and Iran, especially now that Hezbollah, which had served as a significant deterrent against Israeli strikes on Iran, is significantly weakened.
How long will the ceasefire last?
In a statement to the public on Tuesday evening, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that the length of the ceasefire “depends on what happens in Lebanon” and that Israel still had full freedom of action against Hezbollah.
“If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack,” said Netanyahu.
The prime minister addressed concerns that Israel would be unable to act due to international pressure once a ceasefire was instituted, claiming that people had the same concern during the ceasefire in Gaza last November, and yet Israel was able to renew the fight against Hamas.
He also addressed concerns that Hezbollah would use the ceasefire to rearm and grow stronger and then attack Israel, explaining that any efforts to rearm would serve as a violation of the ceasefire and allow Israel to respond forcefully.
“I know there are people who don’t believe we will do that. But many also didn’t believe we would enter Gaza on the ground, and we did. They didn’t believe we would go into Shifa and Khan Younis, and we did. They didn’t believe we would go into Rafah and the Philadelphi corridor, in the face of all the international pressure. Not only did we go in, we attacked, and then some. Many didn’t believe that we would attack Lebanon, and we did that too. We attacked with force and sophistication that surprised the whole world,” said Netanyahu.
The prime minister provided three reasons for agreeing to a ceasefire at this point.
The first reason is to allow Israel to focus on the Iranian threat. Netanyahu stressed that he would not expand on what he meant by that.
The second reason is to allow Israeli forces to refresh and rearm. He also acknowledged that there had been “delays” in weapons deliveries, seemingly in reference to reports that the U.S. had been holding back shipments in recent months due to concerns about Israel’s conduct in the war. “These delays will be resolved soon,” Netanyahu said.
The third reason provided by Netanyahu is that a ceasefire with Lebanon will isolate Hamas. “From day two of the war, Hamas was counting on Hezbollah to fight by its side. With Hezbollah out of the picture, Hamas is left on its own. We will increase our pressure on Hamas and that will help us in our sacred mission of releasing our hostages,” added the prime minister.
In a conversation with the heads of towns and cities in northern Israel on Tuesday, Netanyahu stressed that none of their residents should return home yet until it’s clear whether or not Hezbollah is actually complying with the deal, according to KAN news.
Northern leaders outraged at ceasefire deal
The announcement of a ceasefire sparked outrage from across the political spectrum in Israel, with not much support heard for the deal from local leaders or the public.
Local leaders in northern Israel expressed harsh opposition to the deal, warning that it wouldn’t restore security to the area.
The head of the Metula local council, David Azoulay, called on residents not to return to their homes if a ceasefire deal is signed.
“This is a sad arrangement, a surrender agreement by the Israeli government to Hezbollah – an arm of Iran,” added Azoulay. “As long as there is no real security here – not a ‘sense of security’ — we will do everything to not return [to our homes].”
Moshe Davidovitz, the head of the Mateh Asher Regional Council, warned that “the government is returning the situation to a worse situation than the eve of October 7.”
Kiryat Shmona Mayor Avichai Stern expressed outrage at the reported deal, saying “Don’t destine us to be the next kidnapped. This agreement brings Oct. 7 closer to the north as well, and that must not happen.”
Stern also addressed the extensive destruction in his city and throughout the north, saying “Where will our residents return? To a ruined city without security and without a horizon?”
Yasser Ghadban, head of the Kisra-Sumei local council, argued that the ceasefire would just give Hezbollah the opportunity to rearm.
“First they should bring back the hostages from Hamas, there cannot be talks with Lebanon as long as the hostages have not returned home,” said Ghadban.
A poll by Israel’s Channel 13 found that 60.8% of Israelis believe that Israel has not defeated Hezbollah. Only 25.8% believed that Israel did defeat Hezbollah, while 13.4% were unsure.
Meanwhile, the poll found that 44.1% of Israelis support the ceasefire deal, while 37.5% oppose it. 18.5% responded they were unsure.
A poll published by Channel 12 on Tuesday found that 24% of Israelis believe the ceasefire will last several years, while 28% believe it will only last a few months and 30% believe it will collapse even more quickly. 18% responded that they were unsure.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir expressed opposition to the ceasefire, insisting that “a war should end when we defeat the other side,” in an interview with KAN Reshet Bet radio on Tuesday.
“One of the goals of the war is to return the residents of the north safely. We are missing a historic opportunity here to bring them to their knees. We can continue to crush them,” said Ben-Gvir. “It is clear that Hezbollah will return and arm itself. You don’t end a war in the middle. It is only a matter of a year or two until Hezbollah comes back forward.”
Analysts express cautious optimism about the ceasefire’s potential
Amos Yadlin, former head of the IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, expressed support for the deal, saying that the understandings reached with the U.S. provide Israel with greater legitimacy in case Hezbollah violates the deal. He also stressed that the deal thwarts Iran’s and Hamas’s attempt to create a united front against Israel and creates new opportunities to pursue a hostage deal in Gaza.
“Hezbollah comes to this agreement bruised and battered both politically and militarily. The great burden of its rehabilitation will have to be borne by Iran – which is on a collision course with the West and the international system. Herein lies Israel’s opportunity to focus the strategic dialogue with the US on harnessing the new administration to effectively address the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons,” wrote Yadlin.
Yadlin emphasized that a full victory against Hezbollah would not be achieved unless Israel determinedly enforces the deal and invests heavily in rebuilding and developing the north.
Brig.-Gen. (res.) Amir Avivi, the head of the Israel’s Defense and Security Forum (also known as HaBithonistim), noted that it will take time to know if a ceasefire will really be successful in restoring security to northern Israel.
Part of the issue is that the deal largely relies on the Lebanese Army stepping up and actually dismantling Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army has already failed to do this once, but the hope is that with Hezbollah as weakened as it is now, this time they’ll succeed.
Aviv also noted that the deal’s advantage is that it places the burden of proof on Lebanon and the international community. The Lebanese Army will have to show that it can and will actually dismantle Hezbollah, at the very least in southern Lebanon.
Aviv added that there is also strategic logic in stabilizing the northern front in order to focus efforts to finish up the war effort in Gaza. He also noted the need to place a new focus on confronting Iran.
An unnamed political source told KAN news that the ceasefire would not mean “the end of the war.”
“This is a ceasefire agreement that will be checked every day. It could last two days, it could last two years,” said the source.
The source added that there were several reasons to support the ceasefire. For one, agreeing to a ceasefire in the north would lower the chances of a decision being passed in the U.N. Security Council which would force Israel to stop fighting in both the north and the south.
The ceasefire will also give Israel time to refresh forces and rearm. The source added that the incoming Trump administration will likely give Israel broader legitimacy to act against threats and provide essential weapons.
The ceasefire will also sever the connection between the Lebanese front and Gaza, isolating Hamas and increasing the pressure on them to agree to a hostage release deal.
“What is most important is not this or that paper, but Israel’s ability to enforce it – and this is what Israel will indeed do,” stressed the source.
Biden: We’re determined this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence
U.S. President Joe Biden welcomed the ceasefire on Tuesday night, saying, “Lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield.”
“What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed, I emphasize, will not be allowed, to threaten the security of Israel ever again,” said the president.
Biden stressed that the deal is “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
“Let’s be clear,” said Biden. “Israel did not launch this war. The Lebanese people did not seek that war either, nor did the United States.”
“Civilians on both sides will soon be able to safely return to their communities and begin to rebuild their homes,” added the president. ”We’re determined this conflict will not be just another cycle of violence, and so the U.S. – with the full support of France and our other allies — has pledged to work with Israel and Lebanon to ensure that this agreement is fully implemented.”
The president explained that U.S. forces would not be present in Lebanon. “Instead, we, along with France and others, will provide the necessary assistance to make sure this deal is implemented fully and effectively.”
“Let me be clear, if Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defense consistent with international law, just like any country facing a terrorist group pledged to that country’s destruction,” said Biden. “At the same time, this deal supports Lebanon’s sovereignty and so it heralds a new start for Lebanon.”
Biden added that over the coming days, the U.S., Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel would renew efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza as well. The president also reiterated the U.S.’s support for a normalization deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia and a clear path toward the establishment of a Palestinian state that cannot threaten Israel.
“Israel has been bold on the battlefield. Iran and its proxies have paid a very heavy price. Now Israel must be bold in turning tactical gains against Iran and its proxies into a coherent strategy that secures Israel long-term safety and advances a broader peace and prosperity in the region. Today’s announcement is a critical step in advancing that vision,” said Biden. “Peace is possible.”
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati thanked Biden for helping arrange the ceasefire, calling it “a fundamental step towards establishing calm and stability in Lebanon and the return of the displaced to their homes and cities.”
Mikati reiterated the Lebanese government’s commitment to implement Resolution 1701, strengthen the presence of the Lebanese Army in southern Lebanon, and cooperate with UNIFIL. He also demanded that Israel fully adhere to the ceasefire and Resolution 1701.
Hassan Fadlallah, a member of Lebanon’s parliament representing Hezbollah, stressed that Hezbollah “will remain, will continue, will carry on,” even after the ceasefire.
Mahmoud Qamati, the deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday evening that Hezbollah would still need to examine what points Netanyahu agreed to before the Lebanese government signs the deal on Wednesday.
“We doubt Netanyahu’s commitment, who has accustomed us to deception, and we will not allow him to pass a trap through the agreement,” said Qamati.
