Sunday marked the fourth anniversary of the Abraham Accords, a set of agreements that saw Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco normalize relations with Israel, but after a year of war in Gaza, where do relations between the states sit now?
From no recognition to normalization
After Israel declared independence in 1948, most Arab states across the Middle East refused to recognize the new state, with many working actively to destroy it.
As time went on, however, more nations began accepting that Israel wasn’t going anywhere. They didn’t officially recognize Israel, but changed directions, focusing more on supporting a two-state solution rather than trying to destroy the Jewish State.
Egypt signed a peace deal with Israel in 1979, and Jordan followed suit in 1994. However, progress halted there, partially in light of peace efforts between Israel and the Palestinians, which fell apart in the late 90s.
Even though most Arab states didn’t have official relations with Israel, that didn’t stop them from having hidden relations. Israel and many Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, cooperated often in secret, sharing intelligence and conducting limited trade.
That cooperation has only grown over the years, especially as Israel and the Gulf states face a common threat in Iran, and as the oil-rich nations have tried to build closer ties with Europe and the United States.
In 2020, that cooperation developed into official relations. Presenting it as a way to stop Israel from annexing parts of the West Bank, the U.A.E. started negotiations to normalize relations. Soon after, fellow Gulf state Bahrain followed suit; not long after that Morocco and Sudan also reached agreements with Israel.
The states involved argued that they could use their new relationship with Israel to advocate for the Palestinians. The Palestinians and their supporters rejected the claim, accusing them of dropping the issue of Palestinian statehood for their own interests.
Saudi Arabia was set to be the next Abraham Accords signee
The Abraham Accords signed in 2020 weren’t supposed to be the end of the process, with both Israel and the U.S. expressing hopes that Saudi Arabia would be the next state to normalize relations with the Jewish State.
While those efforts were placed on the back burner for a few years, they made a comeback last year, progressing quickly as both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden accelerated efforts to reach a deal.
The agreement would have seen the main leader of the Arab world, the custodians of Islam’s holiest sites, reaching a peace with Israel. Saudi Arabia is also the central rival to Iran, making it a natural ally to Israel in the conflict against the Iranian regime and its proxies.
Additionally, while the other signatories to the Abraham Accords had never had a direct conflict with Israel, Saudi Arabia did take part in the 1948 War of Independence, sending troops to attack the new Jewish state.
Over the years, the rulers of the Saudi kingdom have made deeply antisemitic statements, including calling Israelis “vagrant Jews” and demanding they all be resettled in Europe (the majority of Israelis are Mizrahim who came from the Middle East and North Africa). Normalization would be a step toward changing course away from antisemitism. In recent years, Saudi Arabia has changed its education system to include less anti-Jewish and anti-Israel content.
By the fall of 2022, it seemed Israel and Saudi Arabia were just steps away from signing a deal.
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News in late September last year that Israel and Saudi Arabia were getting closer to a deal every day.
Oct. 7 attacks put a pin in Saudi normalization, harm relations with Accords states
Just two weeks after bin Salman’s optimistic statement, though, disaster struck. Thousands of Hamas terrorists stormed into Israel, murdering over 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping hundreds of others.
In response, Israel launched a military operation in Gaza and casualties within the Strip grew quickly.
At first, the Accord states condemned the Hamas attacks, but they quickly moved to focusing the bulk of their criticism on Israel and demanding an immediate ceasefire.
On Oct. 8, the Emirati Foreign Ministry called the Hamas attacks “a serious and grave escalation” and said it was “appalled” by the kidnapping of civilians. The Bahraini Foreign Ministry also called it a “dangerous escalation that threatens the lives of civilians,” although they later deleted the statement.
Just three weeks later, though, the U.A.E., Jordan, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt, and Morocco issued a statement condemning what they called “flagrant violations of international law” by Israel in Gaza.
“The absence of a political solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has led to repeated acts of violence and suffering for the Palestinian and Israeli peoples and the peoples of the region,” said the Arab states, calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.
In November, Bahrain’s Council of Representatives voted to recall the country’s ambassador from Israel, although the ambassador reportedly never left, and sources from both countries stressed that ties were still stable.
Additionally, none of the Arab signees to the Abraham Accords published statements marking the fourth anniversary of the agreements on Sunday, possibly indicating a desire not to put a spotlight on their relationship with Israel.
In terms of Saudi Arabia, the war has put a pause on normalization. The kingdom has stressed it won’t consider normalization with Israel until a Palestinian state is formed or at least until there’s a “credible pathway toward a Palestinian state.”
Saudi Arabia has also been heavily critical of Israel’s war against Hamas, even placing the blame for Hamas’s attack on Israel in the kingdom’s first official response on Oct. 7th.
Despite the difficulties posed by the war, however, the Accords are still intact, and none of the parties have shown interest in withdrawing from them.
According to the Abraham Accords Peace Institute think tank, trade between Israel and Bahrain actually significantly increased by 933% from January to May compared to the same period last year.
Trade with Morocco also increased substantially by about 64% in that period, while trade with the U.A.E. increased to a lesser extent by just 4%.
Amir Hayek, Israel’s ambassador to the U.A.E., stressed on Sunday that “We are committed to deepening our partnerships towards a brighter future for all.”
Saudi Arabia has also stressed it’s still open to normalization with Israel once its conditions are met. The kingdom has also reportedly been cracking down on social media posts or statements by citizens critical of Israel and normalization.
Abraham Accords role in post-war Gaza
The Abraham Accords have also been seen as a possible solution to handling some of the issues that Gaza will pose after the war is over.
Israeli leaders have said that the goal after the war is for the Jewish State to have security control over Gaza, while a non-Israeli entity would be responsible for governing the Strip.
The international community, however, has expressed stark opposition to Israel keeping troops in Gaza and any ceasefire agreement will likely require Israel to withdraw its forces from most or all of the Strip.
One solution posed to the issue of both security and governance has been to build a coalition of Arab states that recognize Israel to temporarily govern and secure Gaza until a Palestinian administration not committed to destroying Israel can be formed to take its place.
So far, only the U.A.E. has expressed interest in such a solution, but it also stressed that it would only do so if the Palestinian Authority, which currently governs Palestinians in the West Bank, agrees to the plan.
The Emirati Minister of State for International Cooperation, Reem bint Ebrahim Al Hashimy, stressed in July that a return to the status quo before Oct. 7 would not achieve sustainable peace.
The minister suggested that a temporary international mission should be deployed in Gaza and that a new prime minister must lead the Palestinian Authority and carry out reforms to how the Authority functions. The international mission would be charged with providing and deploying humanitarian aid, establishing law and order, laying the groundwork for governance, and paving the way to unite Gaza and the West Bank under the Palestinian Authority.
However, last week, the U.A.E. seemed to walk back their support for such a mission, with Emirati Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed posting on X that “The United Arab Emirates is not ready to support the day after the war in Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state.”
A Palestinian state is unlikely to be formed in the near future, though, as Gaza and the West Bank don’t have united leadership, and most Israelis don’t trust the current political leaders among the Palestinians, many of whom support or are actively part of terrorist groups.
Some solution will likely need to be found in the interim to take care of governing and securing Gaza, and so far, the only solution posed besides having Israel take control has been to hand the reins to the Abraham Accords countries.
